Here is your morning brief on the key stories shaping the markets.
Trump Signals Iran Conflict Will Conclude Shortly After the Midterms
According to reports from Chinese state media, on Monday, September 9, President Donald Trump stated he expects the military action against Iran to come to a close following the November midterm elections. Responding to a question, Trump remarked, "We are not seeking negotiations with Iran. The moment the election is over, this war will end immediately." He further alleged that Iran is desperate to influence the election outcome, hoping to replace the current administration with "a group of weak individuals who will let them do as they please and allow them to possess nuclear weapons." Discussing oil prices, Trump said, "I think it will take a bit longer than the midterms for prices to recede," while reiterating his belief that prices will drop sharply once the conflict resolves. When asked if he would resume talks with Tehran, Trump noted he once wanted a deal but that circumstances have evolved to a point where Washington is no longer contemplating it, although he admitted "negotiations could perhaps occur," yet stressed it is "not something we are currently considering."
Emergency Chute on Trump's Air Force One Deploys After Accidental Activation
Also on Monday afternoon, President Trump departed the White House aboard the Marine One helicopter en route to Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, where he was set to fly on Air Force One to Dallas for a Republican rally. However, upon his arrival, the emergency escape slide on the presidential aircraft was found to have already deployed. Trump remained on the helicopter for about 20 minutes before addressing reporters on the tarmac, explaining that staff were "checking to make sure all equipment was functioning properly," adding that he would "have the slide raised." Despite his comments, the slide was ultimately removed and transported away, as it must be fully detached for servicing once it has been deployed. Sources familiar with the matter told media the slide popped out due to an erroneous activation. Trump received the Boeing jet as a gift from Qatar last year and began using it for travel in July.
Eight Nations Release a Unified Statement
On Monday, foreign ministers from Egypt, Qatar, Jordan, the UAE, Indonesia, Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia issued a collective declaration welcoming the United Kingdom's decision to ban imports of goods from Israeli settlements in the West Bank and to restrict British businesses from providing certain services to those settlements. The statement expressed that this move aids in rallying the international community to adopt similar measures consistent with international law and to hold settlement organizations and individuals accountable for their involvement in unlawful settlement activities. The eight nations also welcomed a separate joint declaration by Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Iceland, Ireland, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and the UK regarding the two-state solution. They urged the international community to build on these efforts, take concrete steps, and block support for Israel's continued illegal settlement operations in the occupied Palestinian territories. The group called on Israel to revoke all measures related to settlement activity and other actions aimed at altering the geography and demographic composition of the occupied Palestinian land. Reiterating that the only viable path to a just, lasting, and comprehensive peace is the implementation of the two-state solution.
Saudi-Led Coalition Reports Yemen's Houthi Rebels Hit Multiple Saudi Regions Again
According to Xinhua News Agency, Turki al-Maliki, spokesperson for the Saudi Arabia-led multinational coalition, said Monday that Yemen's Houthi militants launched ballistic missiles and drones against several locations in Saudi Arabia. In a statement on social media, al-Maliki named the cities of Khamis Mushait, Abha, and Jazan as targets of the attack. The statement condemned the Houthis' "vicious strikes" against Saudi national assets and infrastructure, vowing that the coalition would respond. The previous day, the coalition stated that a Houthi assault on civilian and economic facilities in Abha, Jazan, Najran, and other cities had injured 73 civilians, including women and children.
Oil Rises Internationally, LME Copper Reaches New Record
At the time of writing, New York crude futures were trading at $96.95 per barrel, up 0.94%. As of the close on Monday, London Metal Exchange copper broke through the $14,800 per ton mark, achieving a fresh all-time high.
US 'Siphons' Global Copper Supplies, Shanghai Copper Prices Surge Past 110,000 Yuan per Ton
Copper prices have demonstrated robust upward momentum this week. Spurred by record-setting LME values, Shanghai copper futures have climbed above 110,000 yuan per ton. Industry analysts attribute this price surge to two primary factors: shrinking mine supply and an apparent "siphon effect" where vast amounts of copper resources are being drawn to the United States amid tariff expectations. Reports indicate that in July, the US imported 53,290 tons of copper from the Democratic Republic of Congo, representing 23.9% of total US copper imports that month, helping push America's monthly copper imports above 220,000 tons for the first time. Analysts believe that traders accelerating shipments to the US in anticipation of potential tariffs is a key driver behind the import growth.
Fu Xiaoyan, senior director at Nanhua Futures Research Institute, believes the current price rally results from the combined impact of "trade policy expectations and copper mine supply contraction." She highlights that "the US tariff expectation is a crucial 'trigger' for this move. Owing to that expectation, COMEX copper has maintained a substantial premium over LME copper, prompting traders to rush shipping for arbitrage opportunities." In July, roughly 200,000 tons of copper were sent to the US, the highest level since 2014. With large volumes of copper heading to the States, COMEX warehouse stockpiles have steadily accumulated to approximately 696,000 tons, accounting for nearly 70% of global exchange-visible inventories. Concurrently, non-US markets have seen significant supply withdrawals, leaving LME and SHFE copper inventories at relatively low levels. Fu points out that "inventories are a strong underpinning for this rally." Compared to the persistently high COMEX levels, both LME and SHFE stocks remain comparatively depressed, depicting a stark "ice and fire" situation across global storage hubs.
Data from SMM reveals that as of September 7, social inventories of electrolytic copper in major Chinese regions had dropped to 85,100 tons, a notable decline from the 140,600 tons recorded the previous year. Fu also noted that on September 7, domestic spot inventory of refined copper was 97,600 tons, down 12,200 tons from August 31; SHFE copper warrant stockpiles stood at 23,315 tons, a single-day drop of 2,466 tons.
Wang Weiwei, nonferrous metals analyst at First Futures, argues that this phenomenon is fundamentally a cross-regional transfer of inventories rather than a genuine shortage in global refined copper visible stocks. Until the US import tariff on refined copper is finalized, this structural inventory deficit is expected to have a more substantial influence on prices. However, Wang adds that the price advance is not driven purely by the "tariff premium." In the first half of 2026, global copper mine output fell by 127,000 tons year-over-year, with leading miners such as Codelco and Freeport-McMoRan witnessing significant production declines. The copper concentrate treatment charge has also sunk below negative $200 per ton, continuously setting new lows. Mine-side supply constraints offer strong industrial support for prices.
Wang believes that factors like tight mine supply, inventory drawdowns, high spot premiums, and the current backwardation structure are now fully reflected in copper prices. The market's true focus is shifting toward macroeconomic elements, particularly US tariff policy on copper and Federal Reserve monetary strategy. Looking ahead, Fu suggests that America's tariff maneuvering will directly influence copper flow direction: if tariffs are imposed, resources may continue being siphoned to the US, further tightening supply in non-US regions; alternatively, if tariffs are ultimately not applied, a significant volume of copper might flow back, prompting a re-pricing of the metal. Wang cautions that if Washington decides against tariffs, the previously built-in "tariff premium" could be swiftly unwound, and the supply-demand dynamics in non-US markets could transition from the current tight balance to a surplus. Until those two uncertainties are resolved, copper prices may stay elevated, though vigilance is warranted regarding volatility stemming from policy shifts.