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Rebar: Yesterday, rebar futures experienced a volatile decline. The 2701 contract settled at 3,146 yuan per tonne, down 23 yuan from the prior close, a drop of 0.73%, while open interest expanded by 56,100 lots. Spot prices edged lower alongside weakening trading activity. Tangshan Qian'an billet prices fell 10 yuan to 3,030 yuan per tonne, while Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar slipped 20 yuan to 3,150 yuan per tonne. National building materials turnover reached 85,100 tonnes. According to data from My Steel, national rebar production rose by 24,700 tonnes week-on-week to 1.716 million tonnes, yet remained 403,300 tonnes below last year's level. Social inventory dropped by 161,600 tonnes to 4.893 million tonnes, a year-on-year increase of 20,700 tonnes, while mill inventory edged up 23,100 tonnes to 1.6181 million tonnes. Apparent demand increased by 66,300 tonnes to 1.8545 million tonnes, down 120,200 tonnes year-on-year. Rebar output saw a modest rebound, with inventories declining for a fifth consecutive week. Demand improved, pointing to better supply-demand fundamentals. Both output and demand remain at low levels, yet recent supply declines have outpaced demand, and inventory performance outshines last year. Total rebar inventory now sits 27,500 tonnes below the corresponding period last year, indicating that inventory pressure has been substantially alleviated. The short-term trajectory for rebar pricing is expected to remain a narrow oscillation.

Iron Ore: The main i2701 iron ore futures contract continued its decline, settling at 730.5 yuan per tonne during the day, down 7.5 yuan—a decrease of 1.02%—with trading volume of 275,500 lots and open interest up by 1,600 lots. Port spot prices dropped, with the 60.8% PB fines at Rizhao down 10 yuan to 690 yuan and Carajas fines down 4 yuan to 848 yuan. Data from My Steel reveals that, this week, daily hot metal output across 247 surveyed steel mills decreased by 5,300 tonnes to 2.3629 million tonnes, while the mill profitability rate fell sharply by 22.51 percentage points to 7.79%. Iron ore inventory across 47 ports declined 1.0758 million tonnes to 170.2322 million tonnes, whereas imported ore inventory at 247 mills increased 1.4098 million tonnes to 90.4446 million tonnes. With mill profitability at historic lows, hot metal output has ticked down slightly. Port iron ore stockpiles continue to fall, while mill inventories rise, as some producers gradually replenish their stockpiles. The near-term iron ore market is poised to continue its narrow sideways trade.

Coking Coal: Coking coal futures declined, with the 2701 contract settling at 1,649 yuan per tonne, a drop of 6 yuan or 0.36%, as open interest fell by 14,335 lots. In the spot market, Jiexiu main coking coal (A＜10.5, S＜1.3, G＞80) held steady at 2,240 yuan per tonne. At Ganqimaodu port, Mongolian No.5 raw coal rose 13 yuan to 1,694 yuan per tonne, while No.3 washed coal retreated 30 yuan to 1,820 yuan. Output from major coking coal producing regions remains subdued, though weekly production data shows modest improvement month-on-month. The trend of resuming operations without fully restoring output remains evident, as many active mines continue running at low utilization rates due to stringent safety compliance rules, overproduction from prior periods, and challenging underground mining conditions. Overall capacity release has been slow. On Mongolian imports, spot prices continue to trade within a high-level range. The fifth round of coke price hikes has been fully implemented across the market. To maintain continuous production, coke producers continue to replenish premium coking coal inventory, sustaining robust restocking demand. Hot metal output remains elevated, providing solid price support for coking coal. However, sentiment in the coking coal market has noticeably cooled, with auction failure rates rising. The coking coal market is expected to undergo wide fluctuations in the short term.

Coke: Coke futures declined, with the 2701 contract settling at 2,136.5 yuan per tonne, a decrease of 24 yuan or 1.11%, while open interest dropped by 1,092 lots. On the spot front, the first-grade metallurgical coke price at Rizhao port increased 30 yuan to 2,090 yuan per tonne. Coke supply remains broadly tight, as upstream coking coal continues to face localized shortages. Poor profitability has suppressed coke producers' enthusiasm for ramping up output. While the recent price hike has partially restored margins, producers remain predominantly loss-making. Mongolian coal truck crossings have picked up slightly, and some coking coal spot prices have eased modestly. Steel mills' rigid demand for coke persists, yet their own weak profitability constrains cost absorption capacity, reducing appetite for high-priced raw materials. Coke inventories at mills remain low, prompting active restocking for essential needs, albeit with clear resistance to elevated prices. Wide fluctuations are expected for coke futures in the near term.

Manganese Silicon: On Thursday, manganese silicon futures weakened, with the main contract closing at 5,890 yuan per tonne—down 1.04%—and open interest falling by 15,178 lots to 281,800 lots. The broader ferrous complex underperformed, dragging manganese silicon prices lower. Steel tenders are underway, with Zhongnan Steel pricing manganese silicon at 6,000 yuan per tonne, while attention turns to the pricing from a major Hebei mill, where the inquiry price stands at 6,000 yuan per tonne. On the cost side, manganese ore spot prices held steady yesterday. Miners, facing high inventory costs and anticipating improved future demand, show little inclination to sell at lower prices, resulting in muted port transaction activity. From a supply-demand perspective, the manganese silicon balance remains relatively loose: weekly output has increased for four consecutive weeks, while steel mills' weekly demand for manganese silicon has declined for six straight weeks, sitting at low levels for the season. Inventory among 63 sampled enterprises remains at historically high absolute levels, up 291,000 tonnes year-on-year. On balance, the fundamentals do not support sustained upward momentum for manganese silicon futures. Keep an eye on near-term costs and overall ferrous sector trends; prices are likely to fluctuate widely over the short term.

Silicon Iron: On Thursday, silicon iron futures slipped, with the main contract closing at 6,248 yuan per tonne—down 0.13%—as open interest reduced by 12,457 lots to 376,300 lots. The overall weak ferrous sector continued to pressure prices lower. Recent price action has been driven mainly by cost factors, with coal price fluctuations leading to gains followed by declines. From a fundamental perspective, weekly silicon iron output has risen for four consecutive weeks. On the demand side, steel tenders are progressing, with a leading Hebei mill's September silicon iron tender inquiry priced at 6,300 yuan per tonne, pending final settlement. Sampled steel mills' weekly silicon iron demand remains at low levels for this period over the past five years. On inventories, as of last weekend, stockpiles across 60 sampled enterprises decreased week-on-week, while combined warrants and valid delivery notices increased. Overall, current fundamentals do not support a sustained strong rally in silicon iron futures. Prices are expected to continue tracking the broader ferrous complex in the short term, with attention on tender outcomes, cost dynamics, and market sentiment.

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