On Wednesday, September 9, international gold prices rebounded and closed higher, driven by the US Treasury's announcement of a $6 billion long-dated bond buyback and rising rate hike expectations at the European Central Bank and Bank of England, which pressured the US dollar index lower and boosted gold. However, with US Treasury yields climbing rather than falling and resistance capping gains, prices pulled back, still constrained by short-term moving average pressure and trading below the mid-Bollinger Band.

Despite this, the attached indicators continue to contract, with solid support from key moving averages below, suggesting upside potential remains, though further downside risk cannot be ruled out. The 100-day and 60-day moving averages offer attractive entry points for bullish positions.

In terms of price action, gold opened at $4355.62 per ounce in Asian trading, first testing support at the 100-day moving average and hitting an intraday low of $4341.23. From there, prices rebounded, carrying into US trading with sharp volatility, reaching an intraday high of $4434.18. The session ended with prices retreating on resistance to close at $4401.62, marking a daily range of $92.95 and a gain of $46.10, or 1.06%.

Looking to Thursday, September 10, international gold prices opened slightly weaker, continuing to face pressure from Wednesday's late-session declines. However, while resistance persists above, support remains robust below. Fundamentals present mixed signals, with higher oil prices fueling inflation and rate hike pressures, but safe-haven demand, a softer dollar, and the World Gold Council's report of the second-largest monthly ETF inflow on record for August providing support. Consequently, near-term trading should remain range-bound, awaiting direction from key US data due tonight.

On the day's agenda, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision, followed by President Christine Lagarde's monetary policy press conference. Markets currently expect a 25-basis-point hike, which would likely weaken the dollar and support gold. Conversely, US initial jobless claims for the week ending September 5 are expected to come in below the prior reading, while August PPI figures (annual and monthly), along with August existing home sales data, are collectively expected to pressure gold prices lower. Therefore, any initial rally in US trading should be monitored for potential pullback risk.

On a broader scale, if US data disappoints expectations, the dollar may weaken, favoring gold's upside, making pullbacks buying opportunities. If data meets or exceeds forecasts, traders should lean toward a high-and-short strategy.

From a technical standpoint, the weekly chart shows gold has spent two consecutive weeks consolidating above the 60-week moving average. While support has held, overhead moving average resistance remains, and bullish momentum has yet to strengthen. The outlook stays neutral. A break above $4,725 could open a path toward $5,100 or even $5,700. Conversely, a break below the 60-week moving average suggests a retest of the ascending trendline support, where buying interest could re-emerge.

On the daily chart, gold is trading in a descending channel between the Bollinger Bands. Until prices reclaim the 200-day moving average at $4,540, the bias remains neutral-to-weak. Traders may consider short positions near short-term moving average resistance and the mid-band, while buying near the 100-day and 60-day moving average support levels.

For intraday operations, key support levels to watch are $4,370 and $4,335, with resistance at $4,415 and $4,450. For silver, support lies at $66.70 and $66.10, with resistance at $68.30 and $69.30.

Note: Gold TD calculations are based on (international gold price × exchange rate) / 31.1035. A $1 move in international gold roughly translates to a 0.25 yuan move in Gold TD.