Goldman Sachs has released a research report indicating adjustments to its forecast model for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd (HKEX) (00388). The investment bank has incorporated trading volume data from August and September of this year into its projections, leading to a modest reduction in earnings per share estimates for the 2026-2029 period, with cuts ranging from 0.6% to 1.4%.

As a result of these revised forecasts, the target price has been trimmed from HK$540 to HK$532, which corresponds to a projected price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 34 times based on 2027 estimates. Despite this adjustment, Goldman Sachs has chosen to maintain its "Buy" rating on the stock.

Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs anticipates several potential downside risks that could impact HKEX's performance. These include intensifying competition in the onshore capital markets business, a slowdown in cash market trading activity, and fee pressures stemming from fee reductions implemented on the mainland. The bank's analysis suggests these factors could pose challenges to the exchange operator's future earnings trajectory.