Citi has released a research report stating that, considering that industry growth during the peak second and third quarters in China's beer sector fell short of expectations, the firm has lowered its sales forecasts for Tsingtao Brew (00168) by 6% and 7% for this year and next, respectively, while cutting its net profit projections by 2% and 5% for the same period.
Based on a 2026 projected EV/EBITDA multiple of 10 times, which aligns with the market-cap-weighted average of global peers, down from the previous 12 times to reflect the sector's weakness, Citi has reduced its target price for the company from HK$76.1 to HK$68.55. The 'Buy' rating has been maintained.
The firm keeps its industry ranking order unchanged, with China Resources Beer (00291), Budweiser APAC (01876), and Tsingtao Brew in sequence, all rated as 'Buy'.