On September 10, cement producers in Jiangxi, Sichuan, Yunnan, and other regions issued price hike notices, with increases ranging from 20 to 100 yuan per ton. Analysts attribute the nationwide price upswing to three converging factors: rising coal costs, reduced kiln operations during staggered stoppages tightening supply, and improved demand during the traditional "golden September and silver October" peak season. Among these, the climb in coal costs stands as the primary catalyst.

The price rally has swept across all seven major regional markets in China 鈥?East, Central, South, Southwest, Northwest, North, and Northeast 鈥?marking a new high for the year in terms of coverage breadth, producer participation, and regional price differentials. Yunnan has emerged as the region with the largest price increases and the widest coverage. To offset cost pressures, multiple major cement companies in the area have announced one-off price hikes of 100 yuan per ton.

Since August, coal prices have maintained an upward trajectory, with thermal coal breaking through the 840 yuan per ton threshold to hit a two-year high. Data from Mysteel shows that as of September 4, the FOB price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port stood at 843 yuan per ton, up roughly 40% year-on-year. The core driver behind rising coal prices stems from supply-side contraction. Following the May 22 coal mine accident in Shanxi, the province intensified safety inspections and rectifications, slowing the pace of production resumption. National raw coal output in July totaled 340 million tons, down 10.1% year-on-year, with average daily output of just 11.07 million tons 鈥?the lowest since August 2021. Shanxi's July raw coal production dropped 35.8% year-on-year, marking its lowest level since April 2018.

According to estimates from Bainian Jianzhu Wang, current cement production costs have risen by approximately 27 yuan per ton compared to the same period last year. The surge in coal costs has directly added to the operational burden of cement enterprises. Preliminary statistics indicate that among 14 listed building materials companies in the first half of the year, only HX Building Materials, Shangfeng Materials, and Tashan Group managed to post profits, while the remaining 11 suffered losses 鈥?a loss-making ratio close to 80%. With limited room for price cuts, companies are increasingly motivated to push through price increases to restore profitability.

Industry insiders point out that the successful implementation of these price hikes hinges on the recovery of downstream demand and the degree of coordinated execution among producers. If demand during the "golden September and silver October" peak season fails to materialize as expected, high inventory levels could reignite price competition among companies, risking a reversal of the gains. The strength of the traditional peak season will be put to the test during the execution of these price adjustments.

GF Securities suggests that after two years of policy formulation and promotion, 2026-2027 will see supply-side policy controls dominated by "overproduction management and carbon market mechanisms," which could lead to the phased withdrawal of overcapacity and outdated production lines. This supply optimization is expected to lift the industry's profitability center. Over the medium to long term, cement supply is likely to continue improving, and investors are advised to focus on undervalued cement assets at the bottom of the cycle.

Related concept stocks include CONCH CEMENT (00914), which announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that on September 10, it repurchased 440,000 shares at prices between HK$16.64 and HK$16.77 per share, totaling HK$7.34 million. Since September 7, the company has conducted buybacks for four consecutive days, repurchasing a total of 1.23 million shares for an aggregate amount of HK$20.60 million.

HX BLDG MAT (06655) reported first-half 2026 revenue of RMB 19.497 billion, up 21.5% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders surging 55.2% to RMB 1.713 billion. Overseas cement and clinker sales reached 13.18 million tons, a sharp 57.1% increase year-on-year, with per-ton gross profit of RMB 241, up RMB 58, significantly outperforming domestic operations. The company noted that overseas revenue for the first half totaled RMB 9.01 billion, up 103.6% year-on-year.

CNBM (03323) posted unaudited revenue of RMB 81.483 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2026, down 2.2% from the same period in 2025. The group recorded an unaudited loss attributable to equity holders of RMB 829 million, compared to a profit attributable to equity holders of RMB 1.360 billion in the prior-year period.