A recent research report from CLSA indicates that total orders for major auto brands in mainland China rose by 10% week-over-week, driven primarily by new model launches such as the BYD Company Limited (HKG: 01211) Sealion 08 and the Li Auto Inc (HKG: 02015) MEGA. Brands without new vehicle introductions generally experienced a decline in order intake.
As the market enters its seasonal peak period, the brokerage anticipates that September passenger vehicle demand will continue its gradual recovery, supported by fresh model launches and a more comprehensive product lineup. However, CLSA projects domestic passenger vehicle sales for September to reach approximately 1.7 to 1.8 million units, representing a year-over-year decline of around 24%, primarily due to the high comparison base created by demand pulled forward last year.
The report highlights that BYD saw a 12% sequential increase in orders, largely attributed to the Sealion 08, which carries a price tag between RMB 229,900 and RMB 279,900. The model has reportedly accumulated roughly 15,000 firm orders, with its launch price matching the pre-sale figure. Meanwhile, both Leapmotor (HKG: 09863) and Geely Automobile (HKG: 00175) had no new models during the period. Leapmotor is scheduled to hold a technology conference next week, where CLSA expects the company to unveil approximately two new C/B-series vehicles alongside its latest intelligent driving large language model.
Li Auto recorded a 122% surge in orders week-over-week, buoyed by the refreshed MEGA model. Priced at RMB 509,800, the new version is roughly RMB 50,000 cheaper than its predecessor while offering upgraded features, attracting about 10,000 orders. Nevertheless, CLSA estimates that current MEGA production capacity stands at only approximately 3,000 to 4,000 units per month.
CLSA maintains its "High Conviction Outperform" ratings on both BYD and Geely Automobile, with target prices set at HKD 120 and HKD 30, respectively. The firm also reiterates an "Outperform" rating on Leapmotor, maintaining a target price of HKD 60.