Real Term Premium Seen Driving 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
Dow Jones
Sep 07
0520 GMT - The recent rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has been driven by the real term premium, rather than inflation expectations or rate expectations, Variant Perception says in a note. "This can be viewed as a 'normalization' where the real term premium is back in its post-GFC [Global Financial Crisis] range." Variant's fair value for the 10-year yield is in the range of 4.10% to 4.35%. "The gap is wide, but not unprecedented, we saw similar gaps close in 2023 and 2024," it says. The 10-year Tresaury yield closed at 4.782% on Friday.
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