The latest Market Talks covering Energy and Utilities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.
1126 ET -- Dubai leads most major Gulf stocks lower as escalating U.S.-Iran hostilities and attacks on Saudi Arabia keep regional risks elevated. The Dubai Financial Market General Index falls 0.4%, Qatar's QE Index declines 0.3% and Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index edges down 0.1%. Abu Dhabi's benchmark index bucks the trend, edging up 0.1%, with major constituent ADNOC Gas rising 0.6%. Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz strengthens the case for ADNOC Gas to have export capacity on the U.A.E.'s east coast as the government considers ways to reduce reliance on the waterway, Barclays analyst Ramachandra Kamath says. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)
1038 ET - European energy producers and insurance companies are likely to benefit due to the elevated energy prices and the European Central Bank decision to increase interest rates, eToro's Lale Akoner says in a note. The ECB raised the deposit rate to 2.5% during Thursday's policy decision, as markets expected. Sectors that could be negatively affected by the rate increase include property, housebuilders, smaller companies, and retailers, she says. "Banks may benefit initially from wider lending margins, but that advantage will fade if loan demand weakens and defaults rise." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1010 ET - Grain futures trading at multi-year highs this year prompted hopes for farmers who have suffered from past low commodity prices and inflated input costs for fertilizer and seeds. But surging fuel prices from wars overseas threaten to evaporate any benefit from those higher crop prices. According to AAA, current retail diesel prices set a new high, at $5.9773 a gallon. For farmers, this means harvesting may prove to be an even-steeper expense than anticipated. Last week, the USDA forecast 2026 net farm income at $158.4 billion--up from its previous forecast of $153.4 billion. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0958 ET - Oil futures are sharply higher with WTI hitting $100 a barrel for the first time since May amid increased military strikes between the U.S. and Iran and Houthi advances toward the Bab el-Mandeb strait. "The move is raising fresh concerns about the security of global energy supplies," Fawad Razaqzada of Forex.com says in a note. "A sustained move above $100 in WTI would put renewed upward pressure on inflation expectations." WTI is up 4.1% at $99.95 a barrel and Brent is 3.8% higher at $105.10 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0906 ET - European energy stocks trade higher in afternoon trade as oil ticks above $105 a barrel. Brent crude trades 4.5% higher at $105.80 a barrel while WTI tops $100 a barrel after rising nearly 5%. The rally comes as traders assessed escalating attacks on Gulf shipping and renewed Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia. In London, BP gains 2.5% and Shell rises 2%. Norway's Equinor is up 2.4%. Spain's Repsol, France's TotalEnergies and Italy's Eni all rise over 1%. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0854 ET - Saudi Aramco could grow operating cash flow by around 30% by 2030, Barclays analyst Lydia Rainforth writes after hosting the company at the Barclays Energy-Power Conference. The Saudi Arabian national oil company expects gas developments to add approximately $12 billion to $15 billion of incremental cash flow over the period, she says. Secondly, the company expects improved downstream performance to add up to $10 billion, she says. And finally, oil and gas production growth will contribute, with the company estimating that each additional 1 million barrels a day generates approximately $11 billion to $12 billion at the 2025 crude oil price, she says. Aramco has the opportunity to add 2 million barrels a day of additional production. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0802 ET - Saudi Aramco has the flexibility to rapidly increase oil supply, Barclays analyst Lydia Rainforth writes after hosting the company at the Barclays Energy-Power Conference. The Saudi Arabian national oil company can increase its output to 10 million barrels a day in two days, and reach 12 million barrels a day within approximately three weeks, she writes. "This responsiveness gives Aramco an ability to add supply materially faster than new industry projects can be developed," she writes.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0551 ET - Galp Energia's oil and gas projects in Namibia are a major source of long-term upside, Barclay's Naisheng Cui writes. The Portuguese energy company could potentially double its production over the next decade through Bacalhau in Brazil and the Namibia assets, he writes. The Venus development is in the final stretch ahead of final investment decision--when the project would move to its development phase--and the economics continue to meet the investment criteria, the company said at the Barclays Energy-Power Conference. Attention is also shifting toward the next appraisal campaign of Namibia's Mopane, with the company planning three wells, Cui says. "We continue to view Namibia as one of the most significant sources of long-term optionality within the European energy sector," he says. Shares trade flat at 21.40 euros.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0502 ET - Galp Energia is getting a cash boost from elevated refining margins, high oil and gas prices and strong power prices, Barclays analyst Naisheng Cui writes. The Portuguese oil and gas company says it could deliver close to 5 billion euros of Ebitda with Brent trading a $90 a barrel and refining margins sitting at $35 a barrel, Cui writes after hosting the company at the Barclays Energy-Power Conference. Shares trade flat at 21.40 euros.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0354 ET - Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has strengthened the case for Adnoc Gas to have export capacity on the east coast but who pays for it will be key, Barclays analyst Ramachandra Kamath writes. The U.A.E government is considering options to de-risk its reliance on the waterway, he adds. The key question for Adnoc Gas investors is ownership versus usage, according to Kamath. The plant would require substantial investment and has limited use under normal circumstances, he says. Adnoc Group could build the asset and then transfer it over to Adnoc Gas, like the group has done before, he says. This would avoid burdening Adnoc Gas's balance sheet or dilute the midteen project returns that management targets, he says. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0200 ET - TotalEnergies is exploring oil and gas investments in the U.S., Barclays analyst Lydia Rainforth writes. The French energy major remains focused on cash-accretive growth and its upcoming capital markets day should provide a clearer picture of its strategy through 2035, she adds. Sustaining production beyond 2030 could require higher investment spending, but inflation isn't currently seen as an issue across its portfolio, she writes after a fireside chat with CEO Patrick Pouyanne at the Barclays CEO Energy-Power Conference.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0152 ET - TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne doesn't see a physical gas supply risk in Europe but says the continent will have to compete with Asia for LNG cargos, which could further support prices. The company's integrated gas business continues to benefit from rising gas prices and low European inventories, Barclays analyst Lydia Rainforth writes after hosting Pouyanne at the Barclays Energy-Power Conference. Pouyanne's outlook for oil is more uncertain, she writes. It is unclear whether the drop in Chinese demand since the start of the conflict reflectsstructural demand changes or temporary demand destruction, she writes.