AGS WEEK Ahead: Fed Decision in Focus as El Nino Risk Bites

Dow Jones
1 hour ago
 
 

A roundup of key agricultural commodity markets for the week of Sept. 14-18 by Dow Jones Newswires in London.

 

GRAINS & OILSEEDS: The Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision will be the key macro driver of agricultural commodities this week.

The decision "might be one of the most pivotal macro events of the year," Peak Trading Research analysts said. A higher policy rate--which is widely expected by markets--will likely hurt agricultural commodity prices, they said.

Wheat and corn investors will continue to monitor talks between Russian and Ukrainian representatives around a ceasefire in the Black Sea. In an interview with Ukrainian television, President Volodymyr Zelensky said he would seek to discuss a ceasefire in the region at the UN General Assembly next week.

Soybean investors will look to narratives emerging around the summit between China's President Xi and U.S. President Trump later this month. Trump told reporters the pair would discuss "almost everything," with trade in soybeans a key subject in Sino-American trade relations.

Chinese buyers have purchased close to 13 million metric tons of soybeans so far this season--around half of the country's commitment, Bloomberg reported, citing sources.

Middle East developments will also remain in focus. A planned meeting between Iran and other Gulf states Monday to discuss shipping routes was postponed, adding further pressure to prices. Brent crude oil topped $108 a barrel, a typically bullish signal for oilseeds.

Weather forecasts point to wetter weather across soybean and corn-growing regions in the U.S. If heavier rainfall continues, the pace of harvests could come under pressure, the Peak Trading Research analysts said.

Wheat futures nudged up 0.6% to $7.30 a bushel in Chicago, while corn futures rose 0.9% to $5.35 a bushel. Soybean contracts were 0.7% higher at $13.06 a bushel.

 

SOFT COMMODITIES:

Concern around the future impact of the unprecedented El Nino weather pattern is driving soft commodities markets more than fundamentals, Rabobank analysts said.

Cocoa prices fell sharply last week after an increase in U.S. and European stocks, alongside speculative selling. Brazilian rainfall boosted the outlook for coffee crops, while speculative traders pulled back from bets on the commodity, the Rabobank analysts said.

Investors will watch for tensions with the Ivory Coast cocoa sector, as a producer organization threatened to boycott a consultation led by OIA Cafe-Cacao--the country's official governing body for the coffee and cocoa sectors. The development points to a significant divide between the body and producers in a key cocoa-growing region, Cocoa Intel's Georgi Uzunov said.

Cocoa prices edged 0.2% higher to $5,975 a metric ton, while coffee contracts added 0.9% to trade at $2.88 a pound. Sugar pulled back from a one-year high but remained elevated, down 0.5% at 19.01 cents a pound.

 
 

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