Oil prices rose in early European trading Tuesday as the shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline and recent territorial gains by Houthi militants in Yemen kept concerns over Middle East crude supplies elevated.
Brent crude futures rose 1.8% to $107.59 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate gained 1.9% to $103.30 a barrel. Prices remained below Monday's intraday highs, when Brent briefly reached $109.80 a barrel and WTI touched $104.35 before paring gains. Brent ultimately settled at $105.68, while WTI settled at $101.39
Saudi Arabia is trying to resume partial operations on the East-West Pipeline within days, though damaged pumping stations could take six to eight weeks to fully repair, The Wall Street Journal reported. The 750-mile pipeline can carry as much as 7 million barrels a day from Saudi Arabia's oil-producing region in the east to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, allowing crude exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
The outage comes as the Houthis strengthen their position around another key oil-shipping chokepoint. The militants seized Perim Island in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait over the weekend after taking the nearby port of Mokha, further threatening oil flows through the Red Sea corridor.
Some of the factors that have helped cushion the global oil market against supply disruptions are starting to weaken, Commonwealth Bank of Australia's Vivek Dhar said in a note. China's crude imports are edging higher, while additional non-OPEC+ supply outside the Middle East is unlikely to come online until 2027, he said.
Dhar said it remains difficult to predict when oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will recover materially given elevated U.S.-Iran tensions. CBA's lower estimate that global crude and refined-product inventories provide only five to 11 weeks of cover is becoming increasingly likely, he said.
Saudi Arabia can temporarily maintain crude shipments from Yanbu by drawing on oil already stored at the Red Sea port. Rystad Energy analyst Janiv Shah estimates those inventories could cover around three days of exports, with a range of two to six days depending on how much crude was stored when the pipeline was shut. Saudi Arabia could extend that window by at least another week by drawing on crude stored in Egypt, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Saudi crude loadings from Yanbu had risen above 4 million barrels a day between April and June as the kingdom diverted more shipments away from Hormuz, before falling to 1.1 million barrels a day in August as Houthi attacks increased risks to Red Sea shipping, according to LSEG data.