24歲天才投資人轉向燃料電池：他為什麼清倉英偉達？

BitPush

05/07

整理 & 編譯：深潮TechFlow 原文標題：清倉英偉達，狂買燃料電池：24歲天才投資人的「物理套利」邏輯主持人：Josh Kale；Ejaaz Ahamadeen 播客源：Limitless Podcast 原標題：Forget NVIDIA| This 24-Year-Old's $4.5B Bet on AI's Real Problem (Leopold Aschenbrenner...

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編譯：深潮TechFlow\n原文標題：清倉英偉達，狂買燃料電池：24歲天才投資人的「物理套利」邏輯\n\n\n主持人：Josh Kale；Ejaaz Ahamadeen\n播客源：Limitless Podcast\n原標題：Forget NVIDIA| This 24-Year-Old's $4.5B Bet on AI's Real Problem (Leopold Aschenbrenner...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bitpush.news//articles/7635752\">網頁鏈接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"bit_push_news","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>24歲天才投資人轉向燃料電池：他為什麼清倉英偉達？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n24歲天才投資人轉向燃料電池：他為什麼清倉英偉達？\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">BitPush</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2026-05-07 15:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>整理 & 編譯：深潮TechFlow\n原文標題：清倉英偉達，狂買燃料電池：24歲天才投資人的「物理套利」邏輯\n\n\n主持人：Josh Kale；Ejaaz Ahamadeen\n播客源：Limitless Podcast\n原標題：Forget NVIDIA| This 24-Year-Old's $4.5B Bet on AI's Real Problem (Leopold Aschenbrenner...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bitpush.news//articles/7635752\">網頁鏈接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 來源：<a href=\"https://www.bitpush.news//articles/7635752\">BitPush</a></p>\n<p>為提升您的閱讀體驗，我們對本頁面進行了排版優化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"IE000ITXATA3.USD","symbol_name":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (USD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.bitpush.news//articles/7635752","article_id":"2633190167","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.bitpush.news/2026/05/special_cn-20260507-177813783289051504.png:微信图片_20260507151012_1158_2-200x140.png"],"rights":{"source":"bit_push_news","url":"https://www.bitpush.news//articles/7635752","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2633190167","pubTimestamp":1778137796,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"bit_push_news","name":"比推bitpush"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"最近所有人都在聊 Leopold Aschenbrenner——24 歲，55 億美元 AI 對沖基金，美股版本之子。但大多數討論停留在「他好厲害」和「他賺了好多錢」的層面，真正拆解過他持倉邏輯的內容其實不多。為什麼清倉英偉達、為什麼把 20% 倉位砸進一家做燃料電池的公司、為什麼掃貨一堆比特幣礦企、為什麼沽空 Infosys。所以問題是，他為什麼要這樣做？","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"bitpush.news","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"IE000ITXATA3.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","LU1084165304.USD":"FIDELITY WORLD \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0823421416.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) INC","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","3NVD.UK":"LS 3X NVIDIA","LU0345769128.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0323591593.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL QUALITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ199S13.USD":"BNY MELLON MOBILITY INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU2242650005.HKD":"FIDELITY FUNDS GLOBAL MULTI ASSET DYNAMIC \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) 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Infosys。當時這期節目幾乎沒什麼討論度。現在回頭看，裏面的判斷大面積兑現，值得重新覆盤一遍。\n精彩觀點摘要\n關於 Leopold Aschenbrenner 的投資表現\n\n\n「去年他管理着 10 億美元的資金……今天，僅僅一年後，那 10 億美元已經增長到了 55 億美元。」\n\n\n「他的基金是在 2024 年底成立的，初始規模為 2.55 億美元。而在短短 6 個月內，他的基金表現超過標普 500 指數的 8 倍。」\n\n\n「他在一篇長達 165 頁的文章，題為《情境意識》(Situational Awareness)。在這篇文章中，他基本上預測了我們將在 2027 年達到通用人工智能 (AGI)。」\n\n\n投資範式的轉變：從芯片到基礎設施\n\n\n「他拋售了英偉達、博通、台積電、美光。這些都是主要的 AI 基礎設施公司。」\n\n\n「到 2025 年底或 2026 年初，他認為市場已經基本上完全反映了 GPU 的價值。」\n\n\n「他將關注點轉向了投資者尚未充分關注的主要瓶頸——能源和基礎設施。」\n\n\n「現有的電網是為人類設計的，而不是為了滿足我們今天面臨的龐大 AI 需求。這就是他目前投資的重點所在。」\n\n\n核心重倉：Bloom Energy\n\n\n「Bloom Energy 是他目前最大的投資標的，佔整個投資組合的 20%……他在這家公司建立了一個巨大的頭寸，金額高達 8.55 億美元。」\n\n\n「Bloom Energy 開發了一種被稱為氧化物燃料電池的設備……可以直接將天然氣轉化為數據中心可用的電力。它是模塊化的，可以快速部署。」\n\n\n「他們的需求積壓訂單高達 200 億美元。2025 年的收入增長了約 34%，而他們預計 2026 年收入將再增長 40%。」\n\n\n「如果你使用像 Bloom Energy 的天然氣渦輪機這樣的產品，你完全不需要依賴電網。你只需要把它安裝在 AI 數據中心旁邊。」\n\n\n基礎設施與比特幣挖礦的「捷徑」\n\n\n「Leopold 大舉投資了 CoreWeave。他在核心 GPU 基礎設施和能源供應領域做出了最大的槓桿性投資。」\n\n\n「他投資了許多比特幣挖礦公司……原因在於，這些公司擁有建設 AI 基礎設施所需的兩個關鍵要素：土地和電力。」\n\n\n「他收購這些公司是為了獲得它們的許可證和電網接入權。通常情況下，獲得這些許可證需要數月甚至數年時間。」\n\n\n「這有點像接管了一家已經擁有酒類銷售許可證的酒吧，而不是自己申請一個新的許可證並等待多年，這是一個非常聰明的‘捷徑’。」\n\n\n沽空邏輯與 IT 外包的終結\n\n\n「他對一家特定公司持有空頭頭寸，那家公司就是 Infosys……他們的商業模式完全依賴於提供比西方國家更廉價的勞動力。」\n\n\n「他意識到這些模型現在已經足夠強大，不僅可以自動化簡單的工作，還可以處理一些非常重要的 IT 流程，因此他對這家公司進行了大規模的沽空。」\n\n\n投資哲學：對物理世界的迴歸\n\n\n「單純依賴軟件的公司在未來會變得非常困難。他的這個轉變不僅僅是圍繞架構的構建，而是對物理世界的投資，比如製造業、工廠、能源和基礎設施等。」\n\n\n「這些是無法通過 AI 構建的領域，而是需要人力、需要許可證、需要立法才能實現的硬件和基礎設施。」\n\n\n「能源是唯一一種所有人都無法獲得足夠供應的資源……這一切都圍繞着一個核心：為未來提供動力。」\n\n\n年輕的投資奇才 Leopold Ashbrer\nJosh Kale：\n有一個叫 Leopold Ashbrer 的人，他今年 24 歲。去年我們在某期節目中報道過他，當時他才 23 歲，他當時管理着 10 億美元的資金，專注於投資新興的前沿 AI 概念和技術。而今天，僅僅一年後，那 10 億美元已經增長到了 55 億美元。\n這個比我們倆都年輕很多的傢伙，啱啱完成了一次跨時代的表現，讓他在 AI 領域賺的錢比世界上任何其他基金都多。更重要的是，AI 是當下最炙手可熱的市場，這意味着競爭非常激烈。所以很明顯，這個叫 Leopold 的傢伙正在做一些與眾不同的事情。\n就在上周，他的新一季 13F 報告發布了，我們終於可以一窺他最近的交易行為。所以接下來我們會仔細研究這些文件，看看這個人到底做了什麼，才能讓他管理的資金從 10 億美元飆升到 55 億美元。\n來自 13F 報告的洞見\nEjaaz Ahamadeen：\n他在 12 個月內就完成了這些成就。他的基金是在 2024 年底成立的，初始規模為 2.55 億美元。而在短短 6 個月內，他的基金表現超過標普 500 指數的 8 倍，增長到了 20 億美元。自從我們上次在節目中討論他的第三季度基金報告以來，他的基金又增長了 15 億美元。所以，他現在可以説是處於一個跨時代的爆發期。\n他非常年輕，他做了一個相當大的轉變，但這一切都符合他所謂的「聖經」——一篇長達 165 頁的文章，題為《情境意識》(Situational Awareness)。在這篇文章中，他基本上預測了我們將在 2027 年達到通用人工智能 (AGI)。在這篇宏大的文章中，他詳細描述了自己對 AI 革命如何展開的看法。他的預測幾乎完全正確，他成功預見了 GPU 基礎設施的熱潮，而現在他又提出了一個非常重要的轉變，我們接下來會深入探討。\n從芯片到基礎設施的轉變\nJosh Kale：\n我認為整個投資理念正在從芯片轉向基礎設施。我們現在在螢幕上看到的內容非常有趣。他用 Claude 創建了一個文檔，它將引導我們回顧去年到今年之間的整個變更記錄。或許可以從他拋售的資產開始講起，因為他拋售的這些頭寸規模相當大，其中包括英偉達，他在一個季度內就拋售了價值 3 億美元的看跌期權。\n\nEjaaz Ahamadeen：\n你會看到他拋售的很多股票都是非常受歡迎的公司，許多人現在都在投資這些公司。那麼問題來了他為什麼要拋售這些公司價值 10 億美元的股票？他拋售了英偉達、博通、台積電、美光。這些都是主要的 AI 基礎設施公司。\n他拋售英偉達的股票實際上是賺了錢的，他持有 3 億美元的看跌期權，這意味着由於過去幾個月英偉達的股價下跌，他很可能從中獲利了。所以問題是，他為什麼要這樣做？\n他的那篇 165 頁的論文，他提到到 2025 年底或 2026 年初，他認為市場已經基本上完全反映了 GPU 的價值。這些價值主要來自像英偉達和博通這樣的公司，它們製造這些芯片，然後將這些芯片堆疊起來，供像 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 這樣的 AI 實驗室用來訓練模型。\n而現在，他將關注點轉向了投資者尚未充分關注的主要瓶頸——能源和基礎設施。當下，許多 AI 實驗室面臨的一個主要問題是：第一，他們擁有太多 GPU；第二，現有的電網是為人類設計的，而不是為了滿足我們今天面臨的龐大 AI 需求。這就是他目前投資的重點所在。\n賣出英偉達看跌期權\nJosh Kale：\n看到他賣出英偉達的看跌期權並完全退出英偉達的投資讓我感到很有趣。因為當我和朋友們聊天或者和華爾街的普通人交流時，英偉達都是大家談論的公司，英偉達是最大的投資標的。而看到他從英偉達轉身離開，我認為這再次證明了他總是領先一步，總能預見未來的趨勢，而不是停留在過去的熱點。在他看來，未來的重點是基礎設施，是從芯片轉向信息化的玩法。\n這可能是我們可以深入探討他新投資的地方，因為這些是你應該關注的股票。這些是他目前持有的資產，也是他認為未來會增長的標的。如果他的判斷是正確的，我們應該能從中看到相當可觀的回報。那麼這個季度他新增了哪些投資呢？\nEjaaz Ahamadeen：\n這裏有一個非常整潔的投資組合圖表，將 Leopold Ashbrer 的所有投資按 AI 技術棧分類整理了出來。我們可以看到，投資分為電力生產、房地產和設施、計算與託管、連接性、存儲與內存、芯片與硅片等類別。\n\n其實，我還想補充一下剛才的內容，我注意到他對英特爾 (Intel) 進行了一個非常巧妙的交易。他賣掉了手頭的股票，但同時仍然持有一個巨大的多頭頭寸。他通過這種方式釋放了流動性，將資金投向了其他公司。而他投入大量資金的主要公司是電力生產領域的一家公司，名為Bloom Energy。這家公司在大約三個月前幾乎無人知曉，但他們專門製造用於 AI 數據中心供電的發電渦輪機。\n他在這家公司建立了一個巨大的頭寸，金額高達 8.55 億美元。雖然這裏顯示是 8.76 億美元，但報告中寫的是 8.55 億美元。\nBloom Energy：電力創新者\nJosh Kale：\nBloom Energy 是他目前最大的投資標的，佔整個投資組合的 20%。這與芯片領域完全無關，是一個完全不同的方向。我研究了一下他們的業務，發現確實很有意思。\nBloom Energy 開發了一種被稱為氧化物燃料電池的設備，這是一種從天然氣現場發電的先進技術。通常情況下，當天然氣被輸送到數據中心時，需要通過渦輪機進行加熱和冷卻，這是一種非常笨拙的能源生產過程。而 Bloom Energy 的「燃料盒」可以直接將天然氣轉化為數據中心可用的電力。它是模塊化的，可以快速部署，並且似乎沒有供應短缺的問題。據我所知，他們今年計劃生產 2 吉瓦的電力。\n這是一種非常有趣的能源玩法。我一直在尋找「能源領域的英偉達」——也就是能源領域的「芯片製造商」。目前我還沒有發現一個完全對應的公司，但也許 Bloom Energy 可能會成為這樣的公司。\nEjaaz Ahamadeen：\n我還查閲了他們最近的財報，因為他們是一家上市公司。他們的需求積壓訂單高達 200 億美元。2025 年的收入增長了約 34%，而他們預計 2026 年收入將再增長 40%，顯然他們的需求是供不應求的。\n你提到了氧化物燃料電池。它們的天然氣渦輪機之所以特別有吸引力，是因為它們不需要依賴現有的電網。正如我之前提到的，現在的電網面臨很大的壓力，因為人類需要能源，而 AI 數據中心也需要能源，這就導致了 AI 數據中心所在地區的能源價格上漲。如果你使用像 Bloom Energy 的天然氣渦輪機這樣的產品，你完全不需要依賴電網。你只需要把它安裝在 AI 數據中心旁邊，就可以以高效的成本獲得電力，用於訓練或推理你的 GPU 和數據中心。\n像博通和 CoreWeave 這樣的公司都將需要這種能源，尤其是那些超大規模的雲計算服務提供商以及 AI 實驗室。這讓我想起了《文明》(Civilization) 這款遊戲，不知道你有沒有玩過，這種情況就像是你將基礎設施和能源生產設施搬到自己的小型定居點，以推動它的發展，這裏發生的事情和那種場景非常相似。\nJosh Kale：\n顯而易見的是能源的短缺並不存在，問題在於誰能夠生產出最多的能源。他們確實有一個非常大的訂單積壓量，但問題是，他們是否能夠生產出足夠的產品來滿足這些訂單？製造能力成為了這裏的一個關鍵問題。在很多這樣的投資中，我們正在進入一個「原子」的世界，也就是製造業真正變得重要的領域。我很想在未來深入探討一下，看看他們是否真的有能力進行大規模生產。但目前來看，這無疑是一個非常重要的投資領域，佔了他投資組合的 20%。那麼，他的新投資組合中還有哪些值得注意的頭寸呢？\nEjaaz Ahamadeen：\n他還增加了大約 3 億美元的CoreWeave投資。想象一下作為一個 AI 實驗室，你需要 GPU。但從英偉達這樣的公司購買 GPU 只是一部分工作。要將這些 GPU 部署到機架服務器中，提供電力供應，進行技術工程支持，以及維護 GPU 服務器和冷卻系統，這完全是另一回事。所以你可以將這些工作外包給一家被稱為「新型雲服務商」的公司，這就是 CoreWeave，他們專門處理這些事務。\nBroadcom 在某種程度上也提供類似的服務，但 CoreWeave 是一家較小的公司，最初專注於 GPU 遊戲時代的服務，現在已經轉型為專門服務於 AI 的公司。Leopold 大舉投資了 CoreWeave。在我們之前討論的第三季度，他已經投資了 5 億美元，而這次他又新增了 3 億美元的投資。現在他在 CoreWeave 的總投資可能已經達到 8 億美元，但故事還有更深一層。他還持有 CoreWeave 的主要供應商之一 Core Scientific 大約 10% 的股份，這家公司專門為 CoreWeave 提供能源網的搭建服務。\n如果你考慮投資中的下注策略，Leopold 可能在核心 GPU 基礎設施（如 CoreWeave 的新型雲服務）和能源供應（如 Bloom Energy）領域做出了最大的槓桿性投資，這是他目前基金中持有的兩大主要頭寸。\n比特幣挖礦\nJosh Kale：\n我覺得有趣的是，他已經開始持有這些公司的足夠股份，從而成為一個激進投資者（activist investor），可以實際影響這些公司的決策結果。我覺得這非常有意思。在我研究他的投資組合時，除了電力生產是顯而易見的方向外，我注意到他新增的最多頭寸其實是房地產相關的投資，他新增了大約 10 個與房地產相關的頭寸，而這與比特幣挖礦有關。\n我們現在看到的是，他投資了許多比特幣挖礦公司。這看上去有點奇怪，也有點不合常理。畢竟加密貨幣市場並不景氣，比特幣的表現也不好。他為什麼要買入這些比特幣挖礦公司呢？原因在於，這些公司擁有建設 AI 基礎設施所需的兩個關鍵要素：土地和電力。\n比特幣挖礦需要什麼？需要大量的能源和足夠的空間來放置 GPU 機架。而現在比特幣挖礦雖然並沒有完全衰退，但這些公司的房地產資源和電力資源顯然可以帶來更好的風險回報率。看起來他是在押注這些比特幣挖礦公司要麼會出售他們的土地使用權和許可證，要麼會直接轉型為 AI 數據中心。\nEjaaz Ahamadeen：\n需要明確的是，他對這些公司的興趣並不是為了挖礦，他收購這些公司是為了獲得它們的許可證和電網接入權。通常情況下，獲得這些許可證需要數月甚至數年的時間。這也是為什麼我們會看到像 Meta、Microsoft 和 OpenAI 這樣的公司宣佈了價值 1.4 萬億美元的計算合作伙伴關係，但這些合作還沒有完全轉化為他們推出的模型。這就是為什麼 GPU 的供應總是落後於最新一代的原因之一，因為他們無法及時獲得這些許可證。\nLeopold 轉而收購這些已經擁有許可證的小公司，繞過了整個許可流程。他完全剝離了這些公司的加密服務，將它們重新用於專門訓練 AI 模型，併成為這些 AI 實驗室的基礎設施提供商。這有點像接管了一家已經擁有酒類銷售許可證的酒吧，而不是自己申請一個新的許可證並等待多年，這是一個非常聰明的「捷徑」。\nAGI 和市場趨勢\nJosh Kale：\n我最佩服他的投資理念之一，以及過去一年中看到這些理念如何被驗證的過程，就是它的簡單性和高效性。比如，比特幣挖礦公司顯然擁有許可證和能源，而且顯然每家 AI 公司都需要這些資源。那麼，為什麼不是所有人都在購買這些公司呢？我認為，正是因為這些想法過於簡單，許多人被阻擋在了投資之外。但一次又一次地，他的這些簡單的想法都被證明是正確的。\nLeopold 關於 2027 年實現 AGI 的預測是否也會正確呢？我們真的會在 2027 年實現 AGI 嗎？\nEjaaz Ahamadeen：\n為了驗證這個預測，我們在 Polymarket 上開了一個預測市場，預測 OpenAI 是否會在 2027 年之前宣佈已經實現 AGI。目前看來，Leopold 提出這個基金時，很多人都不看好他的預測，但現在這個預測市場的概率是 13%。所以，這看起來有點遙不可及。他的投資理念或許是正確的，但時間線可能稍微有些不準確。\n這個概率確實很小。不過我必須説，他最初因為這篇論文而受到批評，很多人認為他的觀點太過離奇和不切實際。大約有 50% 的人認為 AGI 會在接下來的幾個月內實現，而另一些人則認為要到 2030 年才會實現。Leopold 是唯一一個提出 2027 年這個預測並且目前來看最接近準確的人。\n他在 GPU 熱潮爆發之前就預測到了 GPU 的重要性。現在，他又在能源基礎設施熱潮到來之前做出了預測。所以我認為他在這一點上仍然是領先的。\n不過，他的投資組合中不僅有多頭頭寸，他還對一家特定公司持有空頭頭寸，那家公司就是 Infosys，這是一家專注於 IT 外包的公司，主要業務在印度。他們的商業模式完全依賴於提供比西方國家（如美國或歐洲）更廉價的勞動力。簡單來説就是，「把你的所有行政 IT 工作外包給我們，我們來幫你搞定。」\n我認為他在這裏的押注是基於他觀察到的趨勢。他看到了像 Claude Code 和 GPT Codex 5.3 這樣的產品的崛起，並意識到這些模型現在已經足夠強大，不僅可以自動化簡單的工作，還可以處理一些非常重要的 IT 流程，因此他對這家公司進行了大規模的沽空。\n我認為，這是他更有深度的投資之一，也更貼合我們目前看到的趨勢，看到他敢於用真金白銀踐行自己的觀點。\n牛市與熊市\nJosh Kale：\n我們可以來討論一下牛市的理由和熊市的理由。當你進入一個這樣的投資組合時，有哪些值得批評或需要謹慎的地方？首先想到的是，這位投資者才 24 歲，我不確定他是否具備很多其他投資者擁有的經驗，某種程度上這可能是一個優勢，但在某個時候，這種優勢是否會崩塌呢？\n另一個讓我擔憂的地方是，這個基金的投資理念有點像一個單一的主題押注。如果 AI 基礎設施和相關支出的增長速度放緩，或者宏觀經濟環境發生變化，這個投資組合中的每一個頭寸都可能受到下行壓力的影響。這裏幾乎沒有太多對沖的空間。所以這個策略確實存在一些潛在漏洞，但從目前來看，所有的信號都表明，這個基金的表現只會繼續上升。\nEjaaz Ahamadeen：\n如果你看看我們這個時代最著名的一些投資者，他們的成功從來不在於某一年或某一個季度賺了多少錢，而在於他們能否年復一年、十年如一日地實現穩定的回報並實現複利增長。Leopold 的開局非常驚豔，他的表現遠遠超出了任何行業的對沖基金的平均水平，而不僅僅是在 AI 領域，但他還需要在更長的時間跨度內證明自己，時間會告訴我們答案。\n我只想説，這個曾經被 OpenAI 解僱的人，他對 AI 的未來發展有着深刻的洞察力，並且提出了最大膽的預測，他是唯一一個至今為止幾乎所有預測都準確的人。他在他的那篇 165 頁的論文中傾注了大量心血，對自己的觀點充滿信心，而目前來看這一切都在為他帶來回報。\n未來會發生變化嗎？可能會。但你可以把這些報告和投資視為他對 AI 競賽中瓶頸所在的實時跟蹤工具，我想強調這一點。最初他的基金投資理念聚焦於 GPU。他認為 GPU 將成為需求熱點，而市場低估了這一機會。現在他的觀點是，這一機會已經被市場充分定價，而他看到的下一個瓶頸正在轉向能源基礎設施。\n你看像 Elon Musk，他正在將數據中心發射到太空。為什麼？因為太陽提供了更多的能源。還有像 Google、Meta、博通和英偉達這樣的公司，它們都在投資數據中心或數據中心基礎設施，以獲得電網的接入權。而他只是把錢投向了這些需求所在的地方，我認為這是一個聰明的舉動。\nJosh Kale：\n我最近讀到 Naval 的一篇很棒的文章，它的核心思想是，單純依賴軟件的公司在未來會變得非常困難，因為現在開發和生成定製軟件變得非常簡單。我認為他的這個轉變不僅僅是圍繞架構的構建，而是對物理世界的投資，比如製造業、工廠、能源和基礎設施等。這些是無法通過 AI 構建的領域，而是需要人力、需要許可證、需要立法才能實現的硬件和基礎設施，我認為這正是未來的發展方向。\n能源是唯一一種所有人都無法獲得足夠供應的資源。無論是電力生產還是房地產投資，這一切都圍繞着一個核心：為未來提供動力。在上一個財報季中，僅 Google、Amazon 和英偉達等幾家公司就承諾了 6500 億美元的資本支出，這足以説明將有大量資金投入到解決這個問題上，而他的投資組合顯然已經準備好捕捉這一切的上行機會。\nEjaaz Ahamadeen：\n是的，他確實做了一些你可能會認為是高風險的投資。比如除非你對能源基礎設施領域非常了解，否則很多人可能根本沒聽説過 Bloom Energy。但這家公司可以被視為一級甚至是頂級的能源公司，特別是在便攜式能源方面。他將這些線索拼接在一起，認為電網無法支持當前的需求，於是決月供資這家公司。他以極高的信念投入了資金。我們談論的是，他幾乎將自己整個投資組合的五分之一都投在了這一個標的上。\n這是一種極度集中的高風險、高信念的投資方式。但如果成功了，這就是為什麼他的投資組合能在一年半的時間裏實現 4.5 到 5 倍的回報。我們必須對他表示敬意，將 10 億美元在一年內增值到 55 億美元，這簡直令人難以置信。\nLeopold 投資的未來\nJosh Kale：\n總的來説，他能取得這樣的成就真是令人驚歎，而且他最新的從硬件到基礎設施再到能源的轉變看起來方向正確，前景非常看好。如果你認同他的投資組合，那也許這是一個值得關注的機會。當然這不是投資建議，這只是這個人的投資組合而已，但它看起來確實很有希望，並且今年可能表現非常出色。\nJosh Kale：\n我也很好奇我們的聽眾怎麼想，我想知道你們是否認為我們的投資分析是專業級別的，是否達到了 Leopold 的水平，還是你們覺得我們完全錯了，忽略了一些顯而易見的故事。\nEjaaz Ahamadeen：\n你知道我想要什麼嗎？我想知道你們心目中今年最棒的股票是什麼。\nJosh Kale：\n是的，Leopold 押注了 Bloom Energy。我想知道，你們的 Bloom Energy 是什麼？我們錯過了什麼需要知道的東西，能夠在今年再次實現 5 倍的增長？\n\nTwitter：https://twitter.com/BitpushNewsCN\n比推 TG 交流群：https://t.me/BitPushCommunity\n比推 TG 訂閲： https://t.me/bitpush\n\n\n説明: 比推所有文章只代表作者觀點，不構成投資建議","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"shareholding","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}