金價上5200美元已太難，美銀、德銀、大摩、高盛、瑞銀集體變臉

中新經緯

06/23

在新任聯儲局主席凱文·沃什出乎意料地釋放鷹派信號後，美國華爾街各大機構紛紛下調了金價預期。據美國消費者新聞與商業頻道（CNBC）22日報道，美國銀行由邁克爾·威德默領導的大宗商品策略師團隊在上周五的研報中寫道：「議息會議後，聯儲局年內加息的風險大幅上升。短期內黃金很難出現大幅上漲。」威德默表示，當前通脹形勢依然不容樂觀，大概率會倒逼貨幣政策進一步收緊，美銀此前給出的每盎司6000美元黃金目標價現在...

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Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and UBS collectively change their faces","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DUST":1.5,"BEGS":1.5,"DULL":1.5,"BGLD":0.6,"DGZ":0.6,"GLL":1.5,"PHYS":1.5,"BAR":1.5,"GSX":0.6,"GS":1.5,"PALL":1.5,"GLD":0.6,"IGLD":0.6,"DZZ":1.5,"GDXD":1.5,"GLTR":1.5,"KGLD":0.6,"JNUG":1.5,"SHNY":1.5,"FGDL":1.5,"UGL":1.5,"IAUI":1.5,"UDN":1.5,"DGP":1.5,"SGDM":1.5,"GOLY":1.5,"GLDY":0.6,"DBC":1.5,"GBUG":1.5,"GDX":1.5,"BTGD":1.5,"GOAU":1.5,"GDXJ":1.5,"GLDM":1.5,"USG":1.5,"UYM":1.5,"RING":1.5,"GDXY":1.5,"OUNZ":1.5,"GDXU":1.5,"IAUM":1.5,"IAU":1.5,"GOLI":0.6,"AAAU":1.5,"SGOL":1.5,"UUP":1.5,"CEF":1.5,"JDST":1.5,"YGLD":0.6},"content_text":"在新任聯儲局主席凱文·沃什出乎意料地釋放鷹派信號後，美國華爾街各大機構紛紛下調了金價預期。據美國消費者新聞與商業頻道（CNBC）22日報道，美國銀行由邁克爾·威德默領導的大宗商品策略師團隊在上周五的研報中寫道：「議息會議後，聯儲局年內加息的風險大幅上升。短期內黃金很難出現大幅上漲。」威德默表示，當前通脹形勢依然不容樂觀，大概率會倒逼貨幣政策進一步收緊，美銀此前給出的每盎司6000美元黃金目標價現在看來已難以實現。該策略師指出，金價走弱與年底前加息概率的上升密切相關，「換句話説，如果貨幣政策從‘通脹背景下的降息’轉向進一步收緊，在其他條件不變的情況下，黃金的上漲空間大約會被削弱50%。」美國銀行經濟學家阿迪提亞·巴韋於周一發布研報預測，聯儲局今年將加息三次，聯儲局基準利率累計上調幅度或將達到75個點子，並稱美國通脹形勢「明顯惡化」。根據芝商所聯儲局觀察工具（CME FedWatch Tool）數據顯示，當前交易員定價年內至少加息一次，大概率於9月落地；12月再度加息的概率也超過五成。黃金具備保值屬性，是公認的避險資產。每當市場充滿不確定時，投資者便會增持黃金，以此對沖通脹風險。但黃金本身不產生利息收益，因此其價格走勢對長期實際利率預期高度敏感。下調黃金預期並非只有美國銀行一家。上周聯儲局議息會議後，多家華爾街投行同步調整黃金價格判斷。瑞銀策略師喬妮・特維斯表示，美債收益率上行疊加市場持續押注後續聯儲局加息，使金價明顯承壓。她在本周一研報中寫道：「金價下行風險已顯著上升，預期價格兑現時間或將延後，本輪金價盤整周期會持續多久，存在更大的不確定性。」德意志銀行指出，市場重新定價聯儲局政策、美國宏觀經濟數據持續強韌，兩大因素共同拖累金價走弱。德銀貴金屬策略師邁克爾·薛稱，按照基準情景測算，若聯儲局後續加息3至4次，金價或跌至每盎司3800美元。周一尾盤，紐約黃金期貨價格約為每盎司4207美元。邁克爾·薛表示，自5月中旬起，金價走勢與聯儲局加息預期的綁定程度大幅加深，而此前自伊朗衝突爆發以來一直存在的金價與能源價格聯動關係則明顯弱化。摩根士丹利大宗商品策略師埃米・高爾稱，中東局勢緩和雖然一度對金價形成支撐，但聯儲局轉向鷹派立場給黃金帶來新的壓力，黃金ETF買盤首當其衝。ETF資金流向對利率預期、實際收益率、美元走勢的變化更為敏感。高爾認為，在聯儲局鷹派基調下，摩根士丹利此前給出的每盎司5200美元金價目標，目前來看實現難度大幅提升；此前該目標成立的核心邏輯，是黃金ETF重回淨流入、油價下行會倒逼聯儲局降息。高爾表示：「聯儲局維持利率不變但釋放鷹派信號，會抬升持有黃金的機會成本，而這一影響將主要通過ETF資金流出體現。」聯儲局主席凱文・沃什上任後的首次議息會議結束後，高盛也重新修正了黃金投資的觀點。高盛上周四將今年年末黃金目標價從此前每盎司5400美元下調至4900美元，並判斷聯儲局在2027年下半年之前不會降息。高盛大宗商品研究員莉娜・托馬斯、達安・斯特魯伊文撰文表示：「長期來看我們依舊看好黃金基本面，但短期操作層面保持謹慎，金價短期存在下行風險，中期仍具備上漲空間。」","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}